承包商创收策略研究——基于一次、二次、三次经营视角

在我国建筑市场竞争激烈的情境下,业主普遍倾向于将风险交由承包商承担,这就使得承包商的被动地位越为明显.在此情况下,承包商的利润空间较低.为提升承包商利润,本文提出三次经营的模式,建立基于信任型合作关系的承包商创收体系.在项目各参与方共赢的理念下,实现承包商的创收和永续发展.     

Price dynamics in corn cash and futures markets: cointegration,causality, and forecasting through a rolling window approach

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - This paper examines the causal structure among the daily corn futures and seven cash price series from Midwestern states from January 3, 2006, to March...     

ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY EFFECTS ON CREDIT AND STABILITY OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

We examine policy‐related economic uncertainty effects on the availability of credit, non‐performing loans and loan loss provisions using a panel of 18 countries. We provide significant evidence that uncertainty reduces the availability of credit while leading to increases in banks' non‐performing loans and loan loss provisions, distorting sectoral stability. Our findings are economically meaningful.     

A hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk

This study proposes a hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk. In contrast to the previous literature that debates which credit risk model is the best, we pool information from a diverse set of structural and reduced‐form models to produce a model combination based on credit risk prediction. Compared with each single model, the pooled strategies yield consistently lower average risk prediction errors over time. We also find that while the reduced‐form models contribute more in the pooled strategies for speculative‐grade names and longer maturities, the structural models have higher weights for shorter maturities and investment grade names.     

中部地区休闲农业可持续发展态势比较研究

[目的]通过分析中部6省休闲农业发展情况,对各省休闲农业可持续发展态势进行比较研究。[方法]围绕休闲农业可持续发展态势进行评价,根据休闲农业发展情况,确定休闲农业发展中的核心指标,从系统内部结构着手构建休闲农业可持续发展态势评价指标体系,并根据专家对各指标的打分结果,运用层次分析法确定各指标权重,结合中部地区农业、社会、经济和旅游等方面数据,对中部6省休闲农业可持续发展态势进行比较和分析,采用综合评价法,得出中部6省休闲农业可持续发展态势的综合排名。[结果]最终确定中部6省休闲农业可持续发展态势的综合评价指数,得到的河南省、山西省、湖北省、安徽省、湖南省和江西省的综合评价指数分别为0. 60、0. 24、0. 59、0. 43、0. 64、0. 46,并根据各省综合评价指数得出中部6省休闲农业可持续发展态势排名。其中,湖南省的休闲农业可持续发展态势最高,湖北省、河南省发展态势次之,江西省和安徽省休闲农业可持续发展态势较低,山西省休闲农业可持续发展态势最弱。[结论]中部地区休闲农业可持续发展态势差异明显,未来休闲农业可持续发展空间很大,中部地区发展休闲农业需要加强区域合作,发挥互补优势,提高旅游行业服务与管理水平,共建旅游发展大格局。     

一种基于预测值量测转换的卡尔曼滤波跟踪算法

在雷达目标跟踪中，系统量测信息通常在球坐标系下获得。为了采用经典卡尔曼滤波算法实现有效目标跟踪，通常采用量测转换方法将非线性量测信息转换到直角坐标系中。针对传统量测转换方法基于量测值计算转换误差统计特性而导致的估计结果有偏问题，提出了一种基于预测值的量测转换方法，并将其与卡尔曼滤波算法相结合，获得了一种基于预测值量测转换的卡尔曼滤波跟踪算法。仿真结果表明，与现有的基于量测转换的卡尔曼滤波算法相比，该算法能在不提高运算量的情况下有效改善目标跟踪效果，跟踪精度提升约20%。     

水利风景区管理效能评估及影响因素识别——基于181个国家级水利风景区样本

基于管理规范、管理执行、管理支持和管理效益4个方面的指标构建,对中国181个国家水利风景区进行问卷调查,以评价水利风景区的管理效能。结果表明:181个水利风景区管理效能平均得分为58.4分,得分低于60分的水利风景区占54.7%,说明我国水利风景区的管理效能总体偏低;水利风景区管理效能与景区类型、批准设立时间、地域分布、所在地区域经济发展水平、主要功能、管理机构独立性差异显著,与面积大小和经营性质之间差异不显著。从分类指标看,管理效果类指标得分最低,从全部指标看,土地权属、游客控制、餐住布局、管理条例、环境保护考核、生态厕所、居民参与、资源调查、保护经费、环境保护宣传、环境保护培训、经营情况等10个指标得分低于平均分。建议破除管理体制障碍,实行分类管理,试点跨流域、市场化、多功能间生态补偿制度,实行特许经营制度,加强自然保护地监督管理,完善自然保护地制度体系。     

How can new ventures command a price premium with innovations in emerging markets?

Successful financing is critical for new ventures' survival and future sustainable growth. With the unique institutional characteristics, it is especially difficult for new ventures in emerging economies to transform innovation capital into favorable investor responses (such as willingness-to-pay, WTP) during the process of initial public offerings (IPOs). Based on the patent records from a unique sample of Chinese firms, we demonstrate that new ventures can successfully leverage innovation for higher WTP in IPOs contingent on the existence of venture capital ownership and reputable underwriter endorsements. These financial intermediates can send inside-out and outside-in signals to market investors to reduce information asymmetry. Our study contributes to research on the valuation of innovations in IPOs. We also provide practical implications to managers and investors of new ventures. We provide implication to managers and investors of new ventures on how to increase the benefits from innovations, which fosters national economic growth and social welfare.     

Automatic extraction of 1D barcodes from video scans for drone-assisted inventory management in warehousing applications

The widespread use of barcodes has significantly contributed to accurate, efficient and economic inventory management in warehouses and distribution centres. However, its efficiency has always been limited by the primary method of reading barcodes with a handheld laser scanner. Compared with this reading by line-of-sight at close proximity, vision-based barcode reading algorithms can further improve efficiency, particularly if accompanied by automated data collection platforms such as drones. This paper introduces algorithms that are able to automatically extract barcodes from video data, and verifies their feasibility and promise for inventory management in warehousing applications. Three key techniques corresponding to different recognition levels are proposed: For a known barcode region, a Harris corner detector and Hough transform-based algorithm is applied to quickly estimate the angle by which the frame area needs to rotate to orient the bars vertically for information extraction. Then, the idea of exploiting connectivity and geometry property of barcode areas is proposed to directly recognise multiple barcode regions in a single video frame to eliminate reading difficulties resulting from interactive influence of multiple juxtaposed barcodes, and to save computation time by only processing frame areas of interest for valid barcodes. In addition, a histogram difference-based fast extraction strategy is designed to further improve efficiency by reducing duplicate information processing. Finally, the performance of each technique is evaluated by analysing video data from a large logistics warehouse, demonstrating satisfactory performance in inventory management applications.     

制造业投入数字化与全球价值链中高端跃升——基于投入来源差异的再检验

数字化浪潮驱动着全球价值链重构,为中国制造业企业提供了后发赶超的绝佳契机;然而,在跨国公司阻截、"逆全球化"思潮与突发公共事件导致全球价值链断裂与科技脱钩风险加剧的背景下,无视数字投入的来源差异而笼统地关注数字化的贸易所得效应难免出现结论偏误.文章基于WIOD投入产出数据库、中国工业企业数据库和海关进出口数据库,识别数字投入的国家属性,检验了依赖不同来源的投入数字化对企业全球价值链分工地位(以出口国内附加值率EDVAR表征)的微观效应.研究发现:(1)国内来源的数字投入对企业EDVAR具有显著的提升作用,而国外来源的数字投入对企业EDVAR具有显著的抑制作用.(2)投入数字化通过成本加成与创新渠道作用于企业EDVAR,且依赖不同来源的投入数字化在各渠道下表现迥异.(3)数字贸易壁垒进一步加剧了国外数字投入对企业EDVAR的抑制作用.文章研究结论为我国制造业走出"自主可控"的数字化之路和实现高附加值创造的"弯道超越"提供了经验证据与政策依据.